Key points to supercharge your conversations for the week ahead

• The Ross Geller of Gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the introverted, colorless, and odorless gas that's been chilling in Earth's atmosphere for ages. It's like the Ross Geller of gases—always there, sometimes annoying, but part of the bigger picture. For the last 100,000 years, it's been the wallflower at Earth's atmospheric party, making up less than 0.03% of the total atmosphere.

• The Fossil Fuel Frenzy: Since the Industrial Revolution, we've been burning fossil fuels like it's a season finale, causing CO2 levels to skyrocket by over 30%. It's like binge-watching a series and suddenly realizing you're on the last episode—except this is no laughing matter.

• The Greenhouse Effect Drama: CO2 is the lead actor in the Greenhouse Gases ensemble. Unlike the extras (Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Argon), CO2 doesn't let heat pass through easily. It's like the plot twist you never saw coming, trapping heat and warming up the Earth.

• The Uncertain Season Finale: Predicting the impact of increased CO2 is like trying to guess the ending of a long-running TV series. There are so many variables, and they all interact with each other. Reaching a CO2 concentration of 500 ppm could result in an average temperature increase of either 1.5 degrees or 2.3 degrees. Talk about a cliffhanger!

Episode 1: The Backstory

Welcome to the first episode of our GM Mini-series! Today, we're diving into the world of Carbon Dioxide. It's such a big topic that we've split it into a two-parter. Consider this the "Previously on..." segment you'd see in your favorite TV series. But unlike "Stranger Things," there's no "Skip Recap" button here, folks!

We'll be exploring the basic composition, chemistry, magnitude, impact, and potential solutions to the global warming induced by carbon dioxide. So grab your popcorn and let's get started!

What is Carbon Dioxide and How Much of It Is in the Atmosphere?

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the introverted, colorless, and odorless gas that's naturally present in Earth's atmosphere. It's also a byproduct of many things we do, like breathing and burning anything made from carbon—wood, oil, coal, and gas. Think of it as the "Ross Geller" of gases: always there, sometimes annoying, but part of the bigger picture.

When you burn anything made of carbon, some of that carbon binds with two oxygen molecules in the atmosphere, and voila! They form CO2. For the last 100,000 years, CO2 has been the wallflower at Earth's atmospheric party, making up less than 300 parts per million or 0.03% of the total atmosphere. We know this thanks to the ancient air bubbles trapped in glacier ice, which are like Earth's own DVR recordings.

However, since the Industrial Revolution we've been burning fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow. As a result, there's been a steep increase in the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. The CO2 concentration has skyrocketed by over 30%, reaching a staggering 417.1 ppm.

How Does CO2 Make the Earth Warmer?

Stick with me here, dear reader. We're about to delve into a smidgen of science, but don't worry—I promise it'll be more "Rick and Morty" than "Big Bang Theory."

An increase in CO2 of 0.01% in the atmosphere may seem like a drop in the bucket, but just like Adam Sandler, a little bit goes a long way.

The atmosphere is primarily a trio of single-element molecules: 78.1% Nitrogen (N), 21% Oxygen (O), and less than 1% Argon (Ar). These molecules are like the extras in a sitcom—simple and easy to overlook. They allow heat to pass through them without much fuss.

Enter CO2. Unlike the simple N, O, and Ar, CO2 has a more complex structure and doesn't let heat pass through as easily. It's part of a group of multi-element molecules that make up the remaining percentage in the atmosphere. These molecules heat up and then radiate that heat around them, acting as the key players in the Greenhouse Gasses. This video offers a fantastic example of how much more heat CO2 can hold. Among the 10 gases that make up this group of Greenhouse Gases, CO2 is the lead actor, taking up the most screen time.

So, what's the Greenhouse Effect? As heat energy is reflected off the Earth by the sun, most of it escapes back into space. But as we add more of these multi-molecule gases, we start to trap heat in the atmosphere, and the Earth begins to warm up.

Greenhouse gases

How Much Impact Does CO2 Have on Temperature?

The proof is in the pudding—or in this case, the chart below. It shows a strong correlation between the rise in CO2 levels and global temperature. Just like in a well-written TV drama, when one character's fortunes rise, so do another's; here, CO2 concentration and average temperature are moving in sync.

Let's hit the pause button for a quick terminology update. The table below measures CO2 concentrations, but when tallying up the total global warming emissions, we usually convert all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into a CO2 equivalent, abbreviated as CO2e. Not all GHGs are the same; some are like the season finales, absorbing more heat but over a shorter period, while others are like the filler episodes, less intense but consistent. To keep things simple, we use a single metric: CO2e. While the table below may not capture the entire narrative, it's worth noting that CO2 accounts for about 70% of the impact, making it a solid starting point for our discussion.

Predicting the future is the bread and butter of climate scientists, a task as complex as figuring out the final season of "Lost." In the short term, we're looking at continuing to produce around 50 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 annually. Our lives are so intertwined with fossil fuels that cutting them out abruptly would be like cancelling a hit TV show mid-season—neither politically palatable nor morally ethical without a worthy alternative.

The 50Gt of CO2e we're currently emitting increases the atmospheric concentration by roughly 2.4ppm per year.

Now, forecasting the impact of increased CO2 concentration on temperature is where things get dicey. Imagine trying to predict the final season of a long-running series; there are so many variables and they all interact with each other. This complexity allows room for biases and agendas to creep in, much like fan theories.

The chart above illustrates this uncertainty well. Reaching a CO2 concentration of 500 ppm could result in an average temperature increase of either 1.5 degrees or 2.3 degrees. These aren't just different episodes; they're entirely different seasons with vastly different implications for life on Earth.

Until Next Time

We've embarked on a journey through the complex world of Carbon Dioxide, the protagonist (or is it the villain?) in the drama of climate change. From its basic structure to its starring role in the Greenhouse Effect, CO2 is a character we can't afford to ignore. We've also delved into the intricacies of predicting its impact on our planet's future—a task as challenging as guessing who ends up on the Iron Throne.

But like any good series, this story is far from over. We've set the stage, introduced the key players, and even thrown in a plot twist or two. What happens next? Will we find a way to curb CO2 emissions? What alternative energy sources could take centre stage? And most importantly, what does all this mean for the future of life on Earth?

You'll have to tune in to the next edition to find out. Trust us, you won't want to miss it!