The Global Energy Mix

Key Points

• Current Energy Composition: As of 2022, the global energy mix is still heavily dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for 81.79% of energy consumption. However, there has been a modest shift towards renewable energy sources, with renewables now making up 14.21% of the world’s consumption.

• Growth of Renewables: Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are experiencing rapid growth. Technological and regulatory advances are driving down costs and increasing adoption.

• Slow Decarbonization and Country-Specific Insights: Overall the transition to low-carbon energy has been slow, with only a four percentage point increase over the past 20 years. Countries like Iceland, Sweden, and Norway have made significant progress while South Africa, India, and Hong Kong economies remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

• Projections for the Next Decade: The next decade is expected to see continued growth in renewables, a potential increase in nuclear energy, and ongoing challenges in transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Introduction

Energy consumption is at the core of modern civilization, powering everything from industries to households. The global energy mix is a complex and evolving landscape, with a variety of sources contributing to total energy consumption. This article delves into the quantitative breakdown of the world's current energy consumption, focusing on a few trends that are shaping the future of energy over the next decade.

A Historical Perspective

Global primary energy consumption has seen a significant transformation over the centuries. From a reliance on traditional biomass in the 1800s to the rise of coal during the Industrial Revolution, followed by oil, gas, and nuclear energy, the energy mix has continually evolved. Modern renewables like solar and wind were added much later in the 1980s and are now becoming more cost-efficient for mass market.

Current Energy Mix for 2022 And A Comparison To A Decade Ago

According to the 2022 Energy Mix report, published by the Oxford Martin School research organization, the global energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for more than 81.79% of energy consumption compared to 86.15% a decade ago. The breakdown as of 2022 is as follows, supported by the change from global energy consumption in 2012.

Low-carbon sources, including nuclear energy and renewables (hydropower, wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal, wave, and tidal), contributed to a little above 18% of global primary energy in 2022.

Trends and Future Projections

Growth of Renewables: Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are seeing high adoption, fueled by remarkable advancements in cost-efficiency and investment. In solar energy, innovations in photovoltaic materials and concentrated solar power are driving down prices and increasing adoption. Green hydrogen is emerging as a versatile energy carrier, with recent breakthroughs in electrolysis reducing costs and enhancing efficiency. Geothermal energy is benefiting from enhanced systems and improved drilling technologies, unlocking new potential in sustainable heating and electricity generation. These are just a few of the breakthroughs that are setting the stage for a transformative decade in renewable energy.

Slow Decarbonization: The share of low-carbon sources has only increased by four percentage points over the past 20 years, with most of that change occurring in the last decade. If the trend continues we can expect a greater degree of use each year as technology continues to advance.

Country-Specific Insights: Countries like Iceland, Sweden, Norway, France, and Switzerland have made significant progress in low-carbon energy production. While economies like South Africa, India, and Hong Kong remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

Challenges for Poorer Countries: Developing nations must grow their economies while avoiding carbon-intensive pathways, requiring cheap, clean energy alternatives which are slowly emerging.

Extrapolating into the Next 10 Years

Based on current trends, the following projections can be made for the next decade:

• Continued Growth of Renewables: Solar and wind energy are expected to continue their rapid growth.

• Potential Increase in Nuclear Energy: Some countries may increase nuclear energy production to accelerate decarbonization.

• Challenges in Complete Transition: The transition away from fossil fuels will remain slow, requiring concerted global efforts and technological advancements.

• Role of Rich Countries: Wealthier nations must play a role in driving down the costs of low-carbon energy, aiding poorer countries in their transition.

Conclusion

The global energy mix is at a critical juncture, with the need to shift away from fossil fuels becoming increasingly urgent. While progress is being made, particularly in the growth of renewables, the pace of change must accelerate. The next decade will be pivotal in shaping the future of energy, requiring global collaboration, innovation, and a commitment to a sustainable, low-carbon future.

Sources

Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser and Pablo Rosado (2022) - "Energy". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/energy' [Online Resource]